According to research by CIMB, thanks to the expansion of AMOLED models by Apple, Samsung and other Chinese brands, the penetration rate of the mobile panel AMOLED market will be 42 percent in 2021, and is expected to climb to 46 percent in 2022 as panel manufacturers continue to invest in the expansion of AMOLED production lines.
"The continued tight supply of AMOLED DDI and the willingness of mobile phone brands to expand the adoption of AMOLED panels remain key factors affecting the penetration rate of the AMOLED market next year," CIMB further said.
AMOLED DDI process requires dedicated processes of 40nm and 28nm medium-voltage 8V. However, the capacity supply of dedicated processes in 2021 is limited. In addition, Samsung's Austin Plant in Texas was shut down due to snowstorms in early 2021, resulting in serious shortage of AMOLED DDI. The new capacity in 2022 includes UMC 28nm and SMIC 40nm, but the expanded capacity still cannot effectively meet the brand's demand for AMOLED DDI, and Samsung's fabs will continue to reduce the production scale of OLED DDIC in the future. It is expected that AMOLED DDI will still be out of stock in 2022.
According to TrendForce, umC's major production expansion plans for 28nm AMOLED DDI will be completed by the end of 2023, so we expect supply constraints to ease in 2023. In addition, other foundries have plans to develop dedicated AMOLED DDI processes, but due to the late development, they will not be able to help with the shortage of AMOLED DDI in 2022. Faced with the capacity limitation of AMOLED DDI dedicated process, in addition to the traditional first-line drive IC manufacturers actively reserve most of the capacity, other drive IC manufacturers also compete for limited capacity, in order to enter the AMOLED panel factory supply chain.
As AMOLED panel technology matures and product yield continues to improve, TrendForce estimates that market penetration will increase from 42 percent in 2021 to 46 percent in 2022, squeezing LTPS panels in the mid-market and driving panel manufacturers to shift LTPS capacity to mid-size applications. However, in 2022, mobile phone brands using AMOLED DDI still face the risk of stock shortage. In addition, the price of AMOLED panel remains high, and the price of other semiconductor components continues to rise. In order to maintain their profitability and sprint the annual shipment target, TrendForce expects a small number of AMOLED products to be converted to LCD panels in order to make a dash for mid - and low-end handset shipments, giving LTPS panel manufacturers a bit of breathing room in the mid-range handset market.
